The NFL bye week can be a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough focus to. When you consider a novice sports bettor, so you spot the type of betting line which includes you quickly on the way to Google News along with your favorite sports stat site to see if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice in the event that team’s opponent is on its way off a bye. For people advanced sports bettors dealing with the bye week, I’ll cover some higher level research and insights about the bye in this article. Before getting for that, I’ll address some general points for everyone unclear such a bye week is, or on what weeks teams have byes.
While you probably know, sbobet in thailand consists of each team playing 16 games. Back 1990, the league changed to some 17 week season as a way to profit more from television advertising. This left each team with a single week off at some stage in the season termed as a bye week. The bye week had been random spanning over the entire season, however in 2004 to make a more uniform schedule for the playoff race, the format was changed. The way it operates now could be bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. Like a sports bettor, you’ll need to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, as they have the advantage of more time to rest, get healthy, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in our analysis, one other area recreational bettors need to pay attention to is Thursday games. Starting week 10 in the NFL season you will discover a single Thursday night game, and on Thanksgiving the two main additional Thursday day games. Consequently on Thursday, teams are frequently playing on short rest, which is generally the case both for teams; so it is not something to concern yourself with. Where it becomes a concern is definitely the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and will acquire a similar benefit to normally the one they have got from your bye week. Be certain when you make bets about the NFL to pay for attention both to teams coming from the bye, as well as teams coming off a Thursday game.
Given that this isn’t a write-up about statistical handicapping models, a subject which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t go deep into it in considerably more detail than to make a single statement after which support it. That statement: the better a team is, the greater number of they enjoy the bye week. This may not be a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis that this best odds makers understand. To offer you a little clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye can be a multiplier depending on power rankings. All teams enjoy the bye week, so how much they benefit is proportional to how good of the team these are.
In the event the above statement is at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some fundamental stats about how precisely well teams coming from the bye week have fared that may help you comprehend the lines a little better.
Across the four most current seasons (2007-2010), in games where merely one team is arriving off the bye, the group coming from the bye features a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re contemplating betting teams coming off of the bye since the past four years they’ve covered 58.1% of times, read my article on the current betting market. A system like that could have worked in 2006; but, more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. The reason being today NFL betting line is significantly more efficient, as well as the market will more than likely correct itself.
The typical ATS data is nice, but it really doesn’t inform us much unless we break it down further. After doing this, a far more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming off the bye week that are favored possess a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off the bye have got a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is reasonably small, but 15-1-2 from the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To discuss a remote stat out from articles I wrote several dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (over a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of times.
To return to and obtain more accurate 4 year numbers for those favorites coming off of the bye, you will find 9 games missing from the 110 sample size I used. This is because 9 times since 2007 there was games where both teams were coming away from the bye. (32×4=128), I bought the 110 sample size because 18 of your byes were not relevant to opening discussion.
The data here strongly supports that good teams benefit from the bye greater than the current market is providing them with credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the road inside the NFL. Using just road favorites is a little quirky, however, and some might consider it “data mining”, even though this trend is well founded when dating back to much further than 2007. If we’re gonna really look at this detailed, though, we must take a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s built into the spread.